Thursday, July 12, 2007

Domino's: Not as Attractive as it Looks (DPZ)

Domino’s is the largest pizza operator in the U.S. All of their domestic stores and most of their international stores do not offer a dine-in option so their stores are very small and lean. That gives them a cost advantage compared to other pizza delivery operations that have dine-in sections. They have two basic operations in the U.S. where they make money, first the franchises that sell the pizza, and second the domestic distribution center which manufactures dough and distributes food. Domino’s has their own fleet of tractors and trailers to help them distribute the food to their franchises. Purchasing food from the domestic distribution centers is voluntary, but almost all Franchises purchase food from the domestic distribution centers anyway. This helps create cohesiveness.

Usually there is some kind of negative news or just a negative cloud surrounding a stock to make it a Magic Formula Stock, but Domino’s is unique in that it just completed a recapitalization plan that included a $13.50 special dividend. Well, the special dividend was just completed, the stock price dropped and now it’s just trading for $18.73 compared to over $30 per share before the dividend.

But before I go any further, I have to clear this up. I ran the screen for top 25 stocks with a market cap over $100m and DPZ was on it, but it should not be because the screener is not taking the new post-recapitalization $1.7 billion of debt into account because the recapitalization closed in the 2nd quarter. The last available quarterly statements do not take this into account. The Pre-Tax Earnings Yield should actually be about 7%. Here is the calculation involved:

EBIT last 4 quarters = $199.2 million
Enterprise Value = $1.7 billion in debt + $1.2 billion in market value
Pre-Tax Earnings Yield = 6.9%

Industry

The pizza U.S. quick service restaurant industry is very competitive. Domino’s main competitors domestically are Pizza Hut, Papa John’s and other local pizza restaurants. Internationally they compete with Pizza Hut and other local restaurants. Domestically, they are the #1 pizza delivery company with a market share of 19% based on dollar value. This is a very stable industry, it is growing at the rate of inflation, maybe a bit higher.

One issue I see with the pizza industry in general is that it does not follow any of the major trends happening inside the country, I don’t know about the rest of the world. People are becoming more health conscious and that will ultimately hurt the pizza industry. Basically, pizza goes against one of the major trends sweeping across the country.

Company

Domino’s has been making pizza for a while, almost half a century. In 1998 Bain Capital acquired a 93% stake in the company and in 2004 it went public, probably so Bain Capital can cash out of their big investment. They have economies of scale for their food manufacturing unit for their retail stores because of their big market presence which gives them a cost advantage over smaller competitors. They are very unique in their treatment of franchises because a majority of the time person has to work/train in the Domino’s system for some time before he/she is allowed to become a sole operator of a Franchise. They promote entrepreneurship inside their franchisees.

Domino’s Pizza is a strong brand being one of the most known consumer brands in the world. They spend a lot of money on advertising, over the past 5 years they have invested an estimated of $1.4 billion in the United States. Domino’s also has marketing affiliations with NASCAR and Coca-Cola.

They plan on growing through the growth of their store count. Additional stores will not cost a lot of money due to the size of the stores and the distribution system available. Domino’s has been struggling with their domestic stores same store sales growth, they were negative in 2006 and just in the past quarter they were negative as well. Their domestic distribution system and their international operations have been the two growing areas of the company.

Something to keep in mind, they are currently defendants in a couple of lawsuits all accusing them of bad working conditions in regards to breaks and meal time.

Valuation

One major factor that bothers me about Domino’s is their debt load, which is $1.7 billion, over half of the company is financed by debt. Their P/E earnings ratios look good at 13.58 for the trailing twelve months and 14.64 for fiscal year 2008. 2.9% of the company is owned by insiders. They have an attractive dividend yield of 2.6%. Domino’s is a great cash generator, cash flow from operations for the past 3 years has been higher than Net Income.

One great part of Domino’s is that they do a great job managing their working capital. Historically, they have had very little or negative working capital. This is because they receive their receivables a lot faster than they have to pay their payables.

Papa John’s (PZZA) is trading at a Earnings Yields of over 10% compared to Domino’s of almost 7%. Their cash flow from operations(ttm)/enterprise value is 22.3%. Domino’s cash flow from operations(ttm)/enterprise value is 9.7%. Analysts expect PZZA to grow their earnings a bit faster than DPZ in 2008 compared to 2007 earnings expectations.

Conclusion

There is a whole list of issues I have with Domino’s:

1) Their huge debt load
2) They are not a “real” top 25 magic formula stock
3) The lawsuits they are facing in regard to working conditions
4) They are facing the health trend head-on
5) Their pizza is not that good
6) They are overvalued compared to Papa John’s (PZZA)

I would not be a buyer of DPZ.

Disclosure: I don’t have a position in DPZ.

52 comments:

David Neubert said...

Nice analysis. Well presented with both objective and subjective analysis.

I will be subscribing to your blog and adding you to our blogroll.

Alex Shadunsky said...

David, thank you for the kind words. What blogroll?

Thanks for stopping by.

Anonymous said...

Great write-up on DPZ. I decided against taking a position because of the huge debt (a while back). Didn't know about your other points. I will bookmark this site. Thanks.

Gene S. said...

I used to work for a dominos, and they used working capital loans all the time because they couldn't get any business. ended up closing down about two years after i started working for them.

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